| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Eastern Michigan | 52-27 | 1638.4 | +25.2 | 1663.6 | 85.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | UTSA | 43-36 | 1663.6 | +7.4 | 1671.0 | 55.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Arizona State | 15-34 | 1671.0 | -23.4 | 1647.6 | 33.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Nicholls | 35-3 | 1647.6 | +14.9 | 1662.5 | 95.8% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Arkansas State | 30-31 | 1658.8 | -35.4 | 1623.4 | 84.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Troy | 41-48 | 1623.4 | -26.3 | 1597.1 | 66.8% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Marshall | 37-40 | 1597.1 | +2.1 | 1599.2 | 46.5% |
| 11 | Oct 28 2025 | L | James Madison | 20-52 | 1601.1 | -52.9 | 1548.2 | 31.4% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Louisiana | 39-42 | 1548.2 | -11.4 | 1536.8 | 63.1% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Southern Miss | 41-14 | 1536.8 | +50.0 | 1586.8 | 56.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 31-14 | 1586.8 | -4.5 | 1582.3 | 88.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | South Alabama | 49-26 | 1582.3 | +22.3 | 1604.6 | 67.0% |
| 20 | Jan 2 2026 | W | Rice | 41-10 | 1606.2 | +29.0 | 1635.2 | 83.6% |