| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Texas | 7-59 | 1580.2 | -115.1 | 1465.1 | 7.3% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | UTSA | 26-31 | 1465.1 | +58.4 | 1523.5 | 29.3% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | North Texas | 49-35 | 1523.5 | +71.2 | 1594.7 | 22.9% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Incarnate Word | 63-10 | 1594.7 | +34.5 | 1629.2 | 95.2% |
| 5 | Oct 4 2026 | L | San Diego State | 29-31 | 1629.2 | -4.1 | 1625.2 | 61.6% |